From time to time I have had to start setting up a backlog, start tracking velocity, and create a release plan in parallel. This situation is a little bit of a nuisance as I prefer the "scientific approach" of letting data speak. In this case that means observing the velocity of the team for a few sprints, have a look at the backlog, and then base the release plan on that data. Inspect and adapt. Inspect velocity, inspect backlog estimates, adapt release plan.
The problem is that this is a little bit hard to do when you are asked to present a release plan before you have no, or just a few, observed velocities to deduce from. Strangely enough executives seem to be accustomed to project managers with precognitive skills, and I unfortunately lack those. So, those before me have set the expectations and "not enough data yet" seem to be considered somewhat a "weak excuse". I do not blame the executives, I blame the project managers that have set "speculative guesstimates" as the standard - easy to make, hard to fulfil.
Luckily it is often possible to stall the release-plan for some time, which gives some lee-room to gather a few velocity data, and get the backlog in decent shape.
When you have at least eight sprint velocity observations, Mike Cohn has a neat short-hand trick for releases at least four sprints into the future; I have mentioned this trick in an earlier letter. However, when having less data, I have used the analysis of the mentioned method to squeeze the maximum information out of just a few sprints of observations.
The problem is that you want to give an interval you feel confident with (e g 95% confidence) and it takes some time to gather enough data for creating a decent interval.
- velocity from one sprint is useless, it gives you an idea about average, but nothing on the variation
- velocity from two sprints starts giving you a decent average, but with only two data-points it is hard to judge variation and giving an interval
- velocity from three sprints starts giving you a fair idea on variation, and you can give an interval
Therefore I have put together a handy cheat-sheet, which I by the way did share with a few people who attended my session on Why Release Planning Works at the just-passed Scrum Gathering in München (Munich).
In short, you fill in how many sprints until release, and then observed velocities.
After each observation, the sheet tells you the interval of 95% confidence of how much you will cover in the remaining sprints, and how much the total sum of work will accumulate to.
It also plots out a nice graph if you care to share it with the stakeholders.
A word of advice and warning when presenting the release plan to stakeholders: I prefer to talk about what stories seem to be in the release (before the 95% interval), which are in doubt (those in the interval), and which will not make it (those beyond the interval). If you present the numbers as such (or this graph), they might start taking those numbers a little bit too serious. You definitely stand the risk that upper management might start viewing it as a productivity measure, which will destroy its usability within a few sprints.
Composing a good release is also an art in itself, and much more that just picking "most valuable". A good release should contain what Kano-analysis describes as the mandatory features, and a few linear - but also at least one "exciter". If not, people might be well satisfied with it, but not raving about it. So, the spreadsheet gives a hint of what "budget" you have for the release.
Anyway: hope you will find the spreadsheet interesting, and at some point useful.